First Of The Month Probabilities For Fading Opening Gaps

I mentioned last month that trading the opening gap on the first day of the month has a low probability of success. How right I was to be cautious today.

Huge opening gaps on the index futures and other commodity futures revealed significant pre market buying interest.

Being the first trading day of the month also added to the note of caution and so I followed my own advice and did not trade the opening gap today with our live account.

I want to keep the research into the first of the month probabilities going and so I papertraded the usual instruments. The results were not good, justifying my view that the first of the month is not a high probability trading day for opening gap fades.

This is the update to the table published in November. The results speak for themselves.